The 77.9% Illusion: What FedWatch Is Really Pricing, and Why Crypto Should Read It Twice
On the morning of October 4, a single number moved through every desk I track...
Projects
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CryptoVault
•
2026-10-05
Market Prices
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$76,006.2
-5.28%
ETH
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$2,252.97
-6.92%
SOL
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$89.66
-6.20%
BNB
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$692.98
-3.03%
XRP
XRP Ledger
$1.24
-5.30%
DOGE
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$0.0717
-6.35%
ADA
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$0.1827
-6.83%
AVAX
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$8.25
-6.58%
DOT
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$0.9081
-5.36%
LINK
Chainlink
$10.68
-7.10%
Event Calendar
202610
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
Gas Tracker
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28 Gwei
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3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
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#CME FedWatch
CME FedWatch related articles
The 77.9% Illusion: What CME FedWatch Actually Prices for October — and Why the Real Bet Is December
Executive Summary: The market is not pricing a pause. It is pricing a...
Projects
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0xLeo
•
2026-10-04
Fear & Greed
50
Neutral
Market Sentiment
Altseason Index
41
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Market Cap
All →| # | Coin | Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bitcoin
BTC
|
$76,006.2 |
| 1 |
Ethereum
ETH
|
$2,252.97 |
| 1 |
Solana
SOL
|
$89.66 |
| 1 |
BNB Chain
BNB
|
$692.98 |
| 1 |
XRP Ledger
XRP
|
$1.24 |
| 1 |
Dogecoin
DOGE
|
$0.0717 |
| 1 |
Cardano
ADA
|
$0.1827 |
| 1 |
Avalanche
AVAX
|
$8.25 |
| 1 |
Polkadot
DOT
|
$0.9081 |
| 1 |
Chainlink
LINK
|
$10.68 |
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